Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Dont know

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@Hoc is a software company with the stated desire of being a technology driven firm, however their financial statements do not include an allowance for research and development (R&D). To create an estimate of @Hocs R&D expense for each forecast year, a list of every Israeli software-only firm with offices in the U.S. was compiled. The companies R&D costs as a percent of revenues were taken for each Israeli company and then were divided into categories based on the number of employees. (See Table Israeli R&D) These employee categories are approximate estimates of @Hocs own estimated employee headcount for the projected years. The findings showed that smaller firms spent a much larger portion of their revenues on R&D than did larger ones. This might represent the fact that there is more pressure on small firms to develop a successful product and that larger ones already have an established product and therefore do not need to spend as heavily. Taking the medians of the percent spending on R&D for each category and applying them to the matching year gives us a percentage of revenue that @Hoc can expect to spend on R&D. This causes a readjustment of the financial statement and causes operating profits to go negative in the fourth year while making the last year less profitable. (See Table @HOC R&D)


Other attempts to adjust the financial statements only returned increasingly negative numbers. The revenue growth seems extremely optimistic and it also seems unusual that operating loss should increase each year and then suddenly reverse to great profits. Increasing revenues in correlation with the growth in net active users of the internet also yielded increasingly negative profits.


In finally settling on a valuation model we chose to identify the main value drivers of the company; employees and technology. Employees develop the technology and by extension a software company can only be as good as its employees. Additionally the cost of goods sold for software firms is extremely low with the primary expense being employee salaries. Therefore the number of employees in a firm can be used as a proxy to forecast revenues and costs.


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